Investors Stay Nervous due to Ukraine Crisis, US NFPs on Today’s Agenda

EQUITIES, THE EURO AND THE POUND SLIDE AS RUSSIA HITS UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR PLANT

The US dollar traded mixed against the other major currencies on Thursday and during the Asian session Friday. It rebounded against EUR, GBP and CAD, while it lost ground versus JPY, CHF, AUD, and NZD.

EUR/JPY — TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/JPY traded lower yesterday, breaking below the 127.37 barrier, marked by the lows of March 1st and 2nd, that way confirming a forthcoming lower low. The pair has been printing lower highs and lower lows since February 10th, as marked by a downside resistance line, and thus, we will consider the short-term picture to be negative.

WILL THE US JOBS DATA REVIVE EXPECTATIONS OVER AGGRESSIVE FED TIGHTENING?

As for today, investors may also pay some attention to the US employment report for February, which could help them form a better opinion on how fast the Fed may proceed with its tightening cycle. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have slowed, to 400k from 467k in January, but the unemployment rate is expected to have ticked down to 3.9% from 4.0%. Average hourly earnings are expected to have accelerated somewhat to +5.8% yoy form 5.7%, which adds to the case of further acceleration in inflation in the months to come.

GBP/USD — TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

GBP/USD traded lower yesterday, after hitting resistance slightly below the 1.3433 zone. On February 24th, the pair broke below the lower end of the sideways range that was in place since February 1st, but since the 24th, it’s been trading in a new trendless mode, between 1.3270 and 1.3440. That said, in the bigger picture, the pair remains below the downside resistance line taken from the high of July 29th, and thus, we see more chances for a downside exit out of the range rather than an upside one.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY’S EVENTS

We get Eurozone’s retail sales for January and Canada’s Ivey PMI for February. Eurozone sales are expected to have rebounded 1.5% mom after tumbling 3.0%, while no forecast is available for Canada’s Ivey index.

--

--

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store
JFD

JFD

JFD is a leading Group of Companies offering financial and investment services and activities.