Nasdaq 100 Hits Another All-Time High, Retail Sales and Preliminary PMIs

Nasdaq 100 Hits New All-Time High Again

The overall market sentiment in the US was in a risk-on mode, yesterday. Once again, US tech giants drove the indices north, with the biggest gainer being Nasdaq 100, followed by the S&P 500 and the DJIA. In fact, Nasdaq 100 even managed to hit a new all-time high, reaching the 11497 mark. What’s interesting with that tech index in particular, is that it showed approximately the same performance from mid-March till yesterday, as it did roughly between August 2017 and February’s peak of 2020. In other words, the gains that Nasdaq 100 made in last 6 months are the same as the index made in a period of roughly two-and-a-half years. Either Nasdaq 100 was rising too slow between mid-2017 and February 2020, or the current upmove is way too steep. Sometimes, the greater the rise, the harder the fall. And we have already seen something similar at the end of the first quarter of this year.

Nasdaq 100 — Technical Outlook

It was another great day for Nasdaq 100 bulls, who managed to drive the price to a new all-time high. Looking at the cash index of Nasdaq 100, we can see that after the close, the index went a bit further north and test the area near the 11525 level. This morning, the price is correcting slightly lower. However, if it stays either above Wednesday’s high, at 11440, or above a short-term tentative upside support line taken from the low of August 11 th, that may still prove positive for the near-term outlook.

Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims

Yesterday, the US delivered their weekly initial and continuing jobless claims, which came out mixed. There was a small decline in the number of people, who continue to receive unemployment insurance benefit. The forecast was initially at 15000k, but the actual reading showed up at 14844k. However, the amount of people, who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time was slightly on the higher side, at 1106k, against the expected 925k. Also, the US released its Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for August, which came out below its initial forecast of 21.0, at 17.2. Although that might be seen as a negative, still, this is sitting well above zero. Let’s not forget that it could be worse. April and May readings showed up at staggering -56.6 and -43.1 respectively. These two numbers were even below the figures we saw for this indicator during the last financial crisis.

Preliminary PMIs and Retail Sales

During early hours of Friday morning, Australia produced its preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs. There was no initial forecast, but we can now see that both came out below their previous readings. The manufacturing one fell only by fraction, going from 54.0 to 53.9. However, the preliminary services PMI dropped from 58.2 to 48.1, which shows that the sector is back in contraction territory.

EUR/GBP — Technical Outlook

Yesterday, after finding resistance near the 0.9070 barrier, EUR/GBP reversed heavily to the downside, but got halted near the 0.8969 hurdle. Today, the pair is violating that hurdle, this way confirming a forthcoming lower low. Such a move might attract more bears into the field, hence why we will examine a possible further move south, at least in the near term.

As For The Rest Of Today’s Events

In addition to the PMIs, US will release its existing home sales for the month of July, where the number is expected to have improved. The previous reading was at 4.72M, whereas the forecast is sat at 5.39M. If the actual figure comes out as expected, or even better, that will bring the indicator back to its pre-April levels.

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